Wednesday, April 25, 2018

#StrongerTogether ! "With few cards to play, does Kim Jong Un hold the trumps?"



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"With few cards to play, does Kim Jong Un hold the trumps?

(By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, April 23, 2018)

PRESIDENT TRUMP fancies himself the master negotiator, but he may have met his match in Kim Jong Un. 

The North Korean dictator has demonstrated a brazen disregard for global norms, an embrace of high-stakes risks to enter the nuclear club and eliminate threats to his power, 

and an uncanny ability to fashion a diplomatic silk purse of a summit from a sow’s ear of outcast status.
(Emphasis is mine.)

... ignoring all that came before him in Republican and Democratic administrations — the president has claimed credit for reanimating negotiations with North Korea while apparently not hearing or heeding hard-learned lessons... 

As much as Trump’s threats of military force, his playground goading of Kim as “Little Rocket Man,” and his pressure on China to increase and enforce UN sanctions may have pressured Kim,

 it’s as easy to argue that Kim forced Trump to the negotiating table with relentless testing that proved he can threaten the US with a nuclear warhead.
(Emphasis is mine.)

For a guy with few cards to play, Kim sure knows how to play them. 

With a summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and the North Korean leader looming this Friday,

 Kim has parlayed a hand of twos and fours into meetings with China’s and South Korea’s presidents,

 a Korean presidential hotline, 

a possible discussion of a peace treaty, 

and a summit with the most powerful leader in the world.

After NBC’s Chuck Todd suggested that Kim has given up very little and made it seem like a lot, Trump erupted on Twitter Sunday. “Wow, we haven’t given up anything & they have agreed to denuclearization (so great for World), site closure, & no more testing!” he fumed.

There’s one problem with Trump’s statement: It’s not true.

 Kim is the first North Korean leader to secure a long-coveted equal-footing meeting with a US leader; a summit is big “give” from the United States before getting any concessions.
(Emphasis is mine.)

 Second, while the North Koreans indicated to the South Koreans (and perhaps to CIA director Mike Pompeo, who made a secret trip) they’d consider denuclearization, they haven’t agreed to anything.

... As far as we know, Pyongyang and Washington haven’t even agreed on the definition of denuclearization. 

“What Kim means and what Trump means are two different things,” Wendy Sherman, a former undersecretary of state who was North Korea policy coordinator under Bill Clinton, said in an interview. 

“What we mean is Kim’s nuclear arsenal, but in the past, North Korea has tried to put the entire security architecture of northeast Asia on the table,” including the removal of US military forces and treaties that keep the South and Japan protected under our nuclear umbrella.

As for announcing a halt to testing, Kim has proved he’s nuclear capable and had stopped testing anyway. 

... The North has conceded nothing yet, and the question is: In exchange for the verifiable, irreversible denuclearization we want, what does Kim want in return?

The last time the North negotiated, “they asked for energy and economic assistance, a peace treaty and cross-recognition of states. They tried to end our military exercises in South Korea..." (Ambassador Chris Hill, a former assistant secretary of state who, in the George W. Bush administration, was the last US official to lead formal talks with North Korea)

Hill fears two things could go terribly wrong. Trump could storm out, leaving us closer to the brink of war. Orstart..."agreeing to something he can’t do" ...

That’s the risk with the “Reykjavik approach” in which leaders... hammer out a deal...“the base camp option”is safer, in which aides do the legwork for a perilous summit, nailing down agreements beforehand. (Kurt Campbell, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia)

The Trump team knows the president might give something valuable away. But implementing the base camp approach is hard when all the North Korea experts at the State Department have gone, including a three-decade veteran who announced his retirement in February. Trump has still not named an ambassador to South Korea. ... "

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πŸ“ΊπŸ“ΊπŸ“ΊπŸ“Ί Rachel Maddow on MSNBC

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( πŸ“Ž Interesting to note: Wallace, a former Republican (or an inactive Republican I believe she calls herself) is new to the job but for right now she has clearly put country over party and  her work on Trump GOP has been credible, IMO... )



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πŸ“Ž Note: I rarely get involved in primary races -- outside of those in my own area. And, unless there is a glaring reason that can not be ignored, I support Democratic Party nominees winning in general elections. 

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Eleanor Roosevelt with female reporters
 at her first White House press conference 
on March 6, 1933. 

“ … At first Eleanor Roosevelt adhered to her own...political topics. She told about her daily schedules, discussed the prints on the White House Walls, and shared low-cost menus for Depression-era households. But reporters pressed the First Lady for more news on public policy, and the press conference sessions soon broadened their scope. As early as April 1933 Eleanor Roosevelt provided a political scoop; she announced that beer would be served in the White House once Prohibition ended. By the end of 1933, according to UP reporter Ruby Black, the First Lady had defended low cost housing, the subsistence homestead program, equal pay for equal work, old age pensions, and the minimum wage. “Tea Pouring Items Give Way to Big News,” Black declared. “No newspaperwoman could have asked for better luck,” reporter Bess Furman recalled. The First Lady, she wrote, “conducts classes on scores of subjects, always seeing beyond her immediate hearers to ‘the women of the country.’” … “ You can read more here ) 

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